In the last couple of months, we have heard and seen more and more dotcom companies collapse, including some famous ones operating in U.S. and U.K.. It is generally believed that over 60% of dotcom companies today will collapse within a year. More sceptical observers think that the figure should be higher.

Is it wrong to join a very long queue for buying some dotcom shares with the hope that the virtual companies concerned would succeed? Many in Hong Kong would probably reply that as speculation and the 'get-rich-quick' culture have been there for such a long time, there is nothing wrong. They would deny that they are lost or blind or greedy in making such investment decisions.

What about the management of the dotcom companies concerned? Before launching a dotcom website, have they first formulated strategic plans, including clear thoughts on how different flows (money, document, materials, products, etc.) of their company would be linked up with its information flows? Few seem to care to learn that the website cannot even accommodate all the electronic information flows of a company i.e. its role is very limited. Most likely, dotcom companies which have collapsed are those which started from a website but not from adopting such holistic view of flows.

When we receive a beautifully packaged gift, we are usually excited and joyful. But what if after opening the box, we find that the contents are rotten? Let's hope that dotcom companies in the future would not be like this.
　

3^rd June 2000